Post-Assad Iran once again

By Tariq Alhomayed

In August I wrote an article entitled “Post-Assad Iran” and I am returning now to write about post-Assad Iran once again. This is because the situation on the ground in Syria has begun to move incredibly quickly, and also because of the assurances I heard from three sources, Arab and European, about Iran planning for the post-Assad phase.

Before I begin we must consider Hassan Nasrallah’s latest statement, or warning, in which he said that the situation in Syria is becoming increasingly complex, but those who think that the armed opposition will be able to resolve the situation on the ground are “very, very mistaken”. Nasrallah’s words are important because they reflect the Iranian stance of course, and Nasrallah here is not talking about al-Assad being victorious, rather he is talking about the difficulty of the rebels succeeding, and there is a big difference. Up until recently, Hezbolah used to think that al-Assad would win, and some leaders of the party even warned against burning any playing cards with al-Assad in view of the fact that his hour of victory was imminent.

What I heard from my three sources, two of whom have previously met with al-Assad and know him well, is that the Iranian strategy - which utilizes Hezbollah in Syria - is based on three main objectives. The first is to desperately defend al-Assad with money, men and weapons, and for this reason, according to the sources, Qassem Soleimani is something of a semi-resident in Damascus. Yet this strategy has failed, and Tehran is now convinced of that. The second objective is to create a separate Alawite state, connected to Hezbollah via its borders. Much work has been done in this regard; Sunni cities and villages have been cleared for this purpose, but the plan has also failed. The third aspect of the Iranian strategy, and this is what is being worked on now, is that in the event of the fall of al-Assad, Iran and its allies will seek to ensure the failure of the subsequent political system, or state, in Syria, at any cost. This will be achieved through spreading chaos, violence, instability and whatever else it takes. This, of course, is where Hezbollah truly comes into play, not to mention the information I obtained from intelligence sources suggesting that al-Assad himself intends to carry out insane acts if he feels he is nearing his final moments in power.

Therefore, Nasrallah’s statement that “the situation in Syria is getting more complicated - but anyone who thinks the armed opposition can settle the situation on the ground is very, very mistaken” is very important and must be taken seriously. It means that Nasrallah and Iran are convinced of al-Assad’s end, and are now planning to set Syria alight. The Syrian President’s allies have said publicly that there will be no Syria after al-Assad, and Iran and Hezbollah are aware that any alternative to al-Assad, especially if it comes about via a military victory, will not be hospitable to them. Thus they are trying to destabilize Syria through Iraq and Lebanon, for Iran and Hezbollah realize that the fall of al-Assad would be a major strategic defeat for them.

Therefore, as I have written many times before, it is not enough to simply estimate the moment at which al-Assad may fall, we must accelerate this as much as possible and have a clear strategy for the whole post-Assad phase, not merely the days in the aftermath. This is in order to thwart Iran and Hezbollah’s attempts, and to protect Syria as a whole.

UN General Assembly 3rd Committee strongly condemns Iran on gross human rights violations

The United Nations General Assembly’s Third Committee strongly condemned the clerical dictatorship ruling Iran over executions, torture of prisoners and human rights violations, the UN Website reported.
The Special Rapporteur for Human Rights in Iran in his speech in the Third Committee called on Iran to release all political prisoners and executions to be halted.
Furthermore, representatives of various countries across the world including the European Union, United States, United Kingdom, Norway, Canada, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Brazil condemned Iran for its crimes and called for a still in the executions.
UN Special Rapporteur on Human Rights in Iran Ahmad Shaheed’s 23-page report to the UN General Assembly states that political prisoners continue to be deprived of medical services which have led to the death of at least two prisoners including Mansour Radpoor in Gohardasht Prison, west of Tehran. These reports also indicated the deteriorating health of political prisoners that are faced with poor hygiene conditions, deprived of adequate food and very rare access to their family members.
It is worth noting that PMOI member Mansour Radpoor passed away in May of this year in Gohardasht Prison after enduring 5 years in jail in the mullahs’ dungeons while enduring inhuman pressures imposed by the regime’s henchmen, interrogators and torturers. He bravely stood for the freedom of the Iranian people.
Following the Special Rapporteur’s speech, representatives of various countries in their speeches condemned human rights violations in Iran under the mullahs’ dictatorship. They called on the Special Rapporteur for measures to impel the regime to abide by its international obligations.
The US representative said repression in Iran is far worse than dreadful. Torture and execution of political prisoners are examples of violating international covenants of political and civil rights. Many in Iran are sentenced to death without undergoing any judicial procedure merely for attempting to practice their right of freedom.
The European Union delegation said it is deeply concerned over the human rights situation in Iran because all five global conventions on human rights are being violated by Iran. It is necessary, they added, for the trend of executions in Iran to be taken into special consideration.
Condemning human rights violations and executions in Iran, the UK representative called the Special Rapporteur for urgent action in this regard.
The Canadian representative condemned torture and other cruel punishments enforced by the Iranian regime, saying it is deeply concerned over the human rights situation in Iran. The Canadian envoy expressed worries over depriving rights, including freedom of speech and assembly and restrictions against women in Iran.
Also, the Norwegian representative expressed concerns over the widespread human rights violations and demanded the release of political prisoners.
Representatives of various countries including Switzerland, the Czech Republic and Brazil called for international action to stop executions in Iran.
Iran’s representative in this session had an outburst response in this session to the wave of condemnations from the Special Rapporteur and various countries.
Why aren’t human rights violations in Canada, the European Union and US taken into consideration, the mullahs’ representative complained.
It is worth noting that in contrast to previous sessions where the regime’s allies, consisting of various governments who themselves have records of human rights violations, rose in defense of the mullahs, in this year’s session only China – the world record holder in executions – supported Iran.It is Iran’s choice how to protect human rights, the Chinese government representative said in its infamous defense of the bloodthirsty mullahs ruling Iran. 

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The Iranian Rial bonfire -English Edition

By Tariq Alhomayed

The ongoing collapse of the Iranian Rial is yet to signal the eruption of what is to come in Iran, despite what some have alleged, but it does raise several questions about the reality of the Iranian political system, both internally and externally, and especially the extent to which the Rial bonfire affects the Iranian central nervous system (merchants and citizens) and Iranian interests abroad (agents of Tehran).
Of course, as expected, the Iranian regime will go to any length to stop the collapse of its currency, and thus thwart the opportunity for any internal political tremors, but this poses several questions, as I mentioned before, about Iran’s ability to deal with what’s coming to it. Will Iran continue to support the doomed regime of the tyrant of Damascus, Bashar al-Assad? It has been revealed that Tehran has provided nearly US$ 10 billion to al-Assad in terms of finance, equipment and even personnel. Hezbollah, a party that is funded by Iran, has also provided its fighters to support al-Assad, so can Tehran continue this funding in spite of the internal discontent, which poses a genuine risk to the political system there? Or will the current situation prompt Tehran to wonder – not necessarily rationally but pragmatically – why it should rush to finance a regime that will inevitably fall in Syria, especially at a time when Iranian internal conditions pose such a serious danger?
The other threat to Iran today is venturing into the “red zone” [with regards to its nuclear program], as illustrated by the Israeli Prime Minister, who garnered strong public opinion on the back of his speech to the UN General Assembly. Is Iran capable of facing a danger of such magnitude while its internal situation is unstable, and possibly due to explode, especially with the ongoing economic sanctions and subsequent collapse of the Iranian currency?
The story here is not about predicting the future or wishful thinking; it is about trying to figure out what Tehran is thinking these days amidst these sensitive circumstances that are undoubtedly of its own making. After all, it was only natural that prolonged tampering in the region and pursuing adventures outside Iranian territory would end up impacting upon Iran’s internal situation. As I mentioned before, the Syrian situation itself has transformed into a significant drain on Iran, economically and politically. In terms of the political drain, the simplest example is the volume of information that is now being leaked about General Qasem Soleimani’s meetings with some Iraqi leaders, specifically the Kurds. These leaks clearly show that some have begun to turn to the media, and specifically the Western media, to embarrass Iran and expose its blatant interference in Syria. Information has even begun to circulate about the pressures being faced by Qasem Soleimani himself in Iran, due to his failure to accomplish anything concrete in defense of al-Assad after 19 months!
Therefore, it is not my intention here to say that Iran has changed its stance, but rather to say: Is Iran capable of continuing its current stances, especially with regards to Syria? Is Tehran also able to emerge from the bottleneck of the “red zone” predicament that Netanyahu put forward to the UN, given its unstable internal situation? We must find an answer to these questions because this issue will entail much, at all levels, in the coming days.

(There is a Farsi translation of this story available here.)

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